A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
